Waters have Settled amid Huge Doubts about Brexit
Almost two weeks after the crucial Brexit vote, the waters seems to have settled down a bit both in the UK and in the rest of the European Union.
Paradoxically, however, the number of unknown factors have increased significantly since the vote, and how it will all turn out in the end is anybody’s guess.
The major UK parties are all but leaderless, as David Cameron has announced his intention to resign, and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is basically without support among his own MPs, making any opinion he may have on the subject pretty much useless. The leaders of the Brexit campaign also seems pretty much neutralized, as Boris Johnson has declined to stand for Tory leader and PM, Michael Gove has failed to muster significant support for his leadership bid, and UKIP leader Nigel Farage has announced that now that he has dropped the UK in a turmoil, he needs some more time for himself and therefore is also stepping down as leader. This does not prevent him from staying on as MEP and getting his salary from that, so he is arguably one of the few Britons who will continue to benefit from the EU.
In Labour, Jeremy Corbyn has refused to stand down despite the massive lack of support within his own party. His position is further underlined by the fact, that his aides have refused Corbyns own deputy leader Tom Watson to meet privately with Corbyn, as apparently Corbyn is to fragile for such a meeting and must be protected. This seems to suggest that the Labour leader is weak and unable to make rational decisions, and that this perception is shared even by his own inner circle.
Among the Conservatives, Brexitter Michael Gove is unable to get any significant support for his leadership campaign among his fellow MPs, while somewhat less prolific but much respected co-Leaver Andrea Leadsom has gathered momentum and is now a clear no. 2 behind front-runner Theresa May. While May seems to have support from the majority of Tory MPs, it is unclear who will win in a vote amongst the Conservative general membership, as Leadsom has been a strong voice in the Brexit campaign while staying out of the post-referendum battle between Boris Johnson and Michael Gove.
The financial markets have also stabilized and some indices, including the FTSE, are actually trading above the level on the day of the referendum. This is most likely due to increasing doubts about whether UK will actually withdraw from the European Union or not. As the Remain vote got a clear majority in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar, it now seems like a choice between keeping the United Kingdom while staying in the European Union or leaving the European Union to become the Disunited Kingdom. It takes a brave politician indeed to make that decision!
Cover photo by Paul Lloyd (CC BY-NC-SA 2.0)
